Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Chicago Cubs -103

The Chicago Cubs have a big advantage on the mound over the New York Mets this afternoon so I like the value we are getting on them here at basically even money.  The Mets are really struggling at the plate scoring 4 runs or fewer in nine of their last 10 games overall.

Ben Brown has been a pleasant surprise for the Cubs posting a 2.51 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in three starts this season while allowing just 4 earned runs and 14 base runners in 14 1/3 innings.  He has faced a tough schedule too with three road starts against the Red Sox, Diamondbacks and Padres.

Adrian Houser has gotten absolutely blasted this season.  He is 0-3 with an 8.37 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in five starts, allowing 22 earned runs and 16 walks in 23 2/3 innings with only 14 K's.  His last two starts have been particularly poor, allowing 14 earned runs in 8 1/3 innings.  Bet the Cubs Thursday.

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15* Guardians/Astros AL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9

The Cleveland Guardians are scoring 5.2 runs per game overall including 5.3 runs per game on the road.  The Houston Astros are hitting .281 and scoring 4.9 runs per game at home.  These two offenses should have their way against these two awful starting pitchers tonight.

Logan Allen is 3-1 in spite of a 5.46 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing 19 earned runs and 6 homers in 31 1/3 innings.  The OVER is 5-1 in Allen's six starts this season.  Allen allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings of a 10-9 win over the Astros in his lone career start against them last season.

Spencer Arrighetti is only in the rotation for Houston due to injuries to their other starters.  He is 0-3 with a 10.97 ERA and 2.34 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 13 earned runs and 25 base runners in 10 2/3 innings.

Cleveland is 9-2 OVER against AL West opponents this season.  Houston is 21-10 OVER in its last 31 games when revenging a one-run loss.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/76ers UNDER 200.5

These are two dead nuts UNDER teams.  The Knicks rank dead last (30th) in the NBA in pace, and the 76ers are playing much slower than normal in the playoffs to accommodate Joel Embiid, who is limping up and down the court with an injured knee.

The last two games in this series were extremely low-scoring, and it should be more of the same in Game 6 tonight.  The Knicks won Game 4 in Philadelphia 97-92 for just 189 combined points.  Game 5 was tied 97-97 at the end of regulation for just 194 combined points before going to OT.  I don't expect either team to get to 100 tonight.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Knicks/76ers TNT No-Brainer on New York +3.5

The New York Knicks have been a resilient team all season.  They are 22-11 ATS off a loss this season and 30-17 ATS in their last 47 games when revenging a loss.  The Philadelphia 76ers are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 games off an upset win as an underdog.

After blowing a 6-point lead in the final 28 seconds, I expect the Knicks to respond in a big way in Game 6 tonight and close out this series.  With only one day of rest in between games, it really favors the Knicks.  They are the deeper team.  The 76ers rely too much on Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey to get all of their offense.  

Embiid is hobbled with a torn knee and running out of steam, and you could see it when he committed nine turnovers in Game 5.  Fortunately for him, Maxey bailed him out with arguably the best game of his career, scoring 46 points on 17-of-30 shooting including 7-of-12 from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen again, and the Knicks will make the proper adjustments to slow him down and make someone else beat them.

Plays on any team (New York) - when revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite, off an upset loss as a favorite are 170-105 (61.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Knicks in Game 6 Thursday.